Your ‘a few years from now’ comment is a bit hyperbolic. But imagine this – Canon, Sony, Nikon see the supply chain issues. Decide to hold all launches for 2, now maybe up to 3 years. What would this forum look like? “Photography is dead”. “The big 3 have abandoned us” “Wow the iPhone killed the camera market way faster than we thought it would” “Better sell my gear now and find a new hobby before any more resale value is lost”.
Meanwhile, Canon, Nikon and Sony camera divisions lose income, reduce development, new products take longer to develop and get released in to a market that convinced itself the sector was dead, sales go down further…
Or you can see the development advancing, but you have to wait a few months for your gear. Which is better?
You have correctly identified that just in time production is part of what caused this situation. When every part is on the critical path (is a rate-limiting part), a supply chain disruption is devastating. Add to that the consolidation to these huge/giga factories, where now parts only come from one place. Lose that and its a big problem for everyone. We’ve discussed this academically at work a lot . Will the business world change away from JIT and try and look to diversify suppliers to avoid this type of disruption in the future? Time will tell.
Brian
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